If film theaters are banking on Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet” to trip to their rescue, they could have to wait rather a lot longer for assist.
That’s the takeaway from a brand new notice by Eric Handler, a number one exhibition business analyst with MKM Partners, who predicts that there’s a “low likelihood” that “Tenet” will open on Aug. 12 as deliberate as a result of of the rising quantity of COVID-19 circumstances in such main markets as Texas, Florida, and California.
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Handler additionally cites the “slowed re-opening of the New York City economy” as another excuse Nolan’s latest epic will probably be delayed once more (it has already moved twice). Movie theaters within the Big Apple stay closed and there’s been no clear indication of after they could be allowed to welcome audiences once more.
He mentioned that it might be stunning if cinemas can reopen earlier than “September, at the earliest.” That’s devastating news for the country’s theaters, which have been compelled to endure months with out revenues since shutting their doorways in March. Some have opened their doorways once more in current weeks, whereas exhibiting older movies such because the “Harry Potter” and “Indiana Jones” franchises.
Insiders predict {that a} resolution on pushing again the discharge of “Tenet” and Disney’s “Mulan,” which can be slated to debut in August, might happen within the coming days. There’s widespread pessimism within the business about any type of grand revival of home moviegoing on condition that coronavirus circumstances within the U.S. have been surging, shattering earlier benchmarks. Theater chains similar to AMC and Regal have unveiled new security measures, similar to further cleanings and enforced social distancing of their venues, however they’ve additionally been dealt a setback as a result of well being consultants consider that indoor kinds of leisure similar to bars and eating places have contributed to the unfold.
Many of these chains are burdened with heavy debt masses, one thing that Handler alludes to in his notice. AMC lately renegotiated its debt in an effort to enhance its stability sheet.
“Focus should return to liquidity until there is a broad re-opening,” writes Handler. “The near-term outlook for exhibition related stocks remains extremely clouded given the uncertainty about when theatres will be able to re-open with new Hollywood content.” Handler additionally lowered his forecast for field workplace revenues for 2020, predicting a 70% slide, worse than his earlier prediction of a lower of between 55% to 60%.
“For the back half of the year we project third-quarter and fourth-quarter box office revenue could fall 90 percent and 50 percent, respectively, down from our previous forecast calling for a decline of 65 percent and 29 percent,” Handler wrote.
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